导弹电子设备故障间隔时间预测方法研究

Research on a Prediction Method of Time Between Failure for the Electronic Equipment of a Type Missile

为提高装备维修保障能力,针对导弹电子设备的特点,应用灰色GM(1,1)预测与马尔可夫预测的组合预测模型对导弹电子设备故障间隔时间进行预测,并应用此模型通过实例对预测精度进行了检验。结果表明该方法可对导弹装备的视情维修提供参考,具有较高的使用价值。

In order to improve the equipment maintenance and support ability, the prediction used GM（1,1）-Markov combination fore- casting model for Time Between Failure was done, based on the characteristic of the electronic equipment of a type missile. Then, using this model prediction accuracy was tested by examples. The results show that the method can provide a reference for the Condition-based mainte- nance （CBM） of a missile equipment, and the method is regarded of feasibility and high practice value.