深部非采煤层CO_2封存稳定性模糊综合评判

FUZZY COMPREHENSIVE EVALUATION ON STABILITY OF CO_2 STORAGE IN DEEP NON-MINING COAL SEAM

为实现对深部非采煤层CO2封存稳定性问题的多因素量化评价,采用模糊数学理论提出基于二级评判模型的深部非采煤层CO2封存稳定性模糊综合评判方法,基于科学性、合理性、可操作性、代表性的原则确立8个一级因素指标和4个二级因素指标,建立综合评判体系,综合采用模糊统计法和专家评分法对各个因素指标按4个稳定性等级进行量化分级,分析各因素指标隶属函数的构造,采用层次分析法合理分配各因素指标的权重,结合我国山西沁水盆地CO2-ECBM项目地质勘查资料进行工程实际评判验证,取得与工程实际相一致的评判结果,由此表明:采用模糊综合评判的方法评价深部非采煤层封存CO2的稳定性具有合理性和可操作性,为CO2煤层封存的场地选址提供理论支持。

To realize the muiR-factors quantitative evaluation on the stability of CO2 storage in deep non-mining coal seam, a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on secondary evaluation model for evaluating the stability of CO2 storage in deep non-mining coal seam is proposed on the basis of the theory of fuzzy mathematics. Based on the principle of scientificity, rationality, operability and representativeness, eight primary factors and four secondary factors are established. A comprehensive evaluation system is constructed, where factors are quantitative graded according to four stability grades using fuzzy statistical method and experts grading method, to analyze the conformation of membership function of every factor. The analytic hierarchy process is used to distribute rational weight for every factor. Evaluation for engineering is conducted with geological exploration data of CO2-ECBM project in Qinshui basin in Shanxi province, achieving a satisfying evaluation result consistent with engineering reality. Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method proves to be rational and operable for evaluating the stability of C02 storage in deep non-mining coal seam, which provides theoretical support for choosinG places to store CO2.