传染病疫情现场预测预警系统的构建

Establishment of Prediction & Warning System for Epidemics

目的:在突发传染病疫情现场,实现疫情的发展趋势预测及重要流行病参数估计。方法:基于SIR、SIS及SEIR动力学模型,实现疫情发展趋势预测,基于退火算法实现疫情重要参数估计,并基于JAVA语言建立重要呼吸道传染病疫情现场预测预警系统。结果:该系统不仅可以根据已知的流行病学特征参数预测传染病疫情发展趋势,还可以根据每天的新增发病人数,精确估计重要的流行病学特征参数,从而进行疫情的发展趋势预测。结论:该系统的建立能够实现疫情的现场快速有效预测预警,从而提高了疫情处置的时效性和科学性。

Objective To predict the epidemic trend and epidemiological characteristics in the field. Methods The model of SIS, SIR, SEIR and ANNEAL algorithm were used to predict the epidemic trend and epidemiologieal characteristics, java was used to construct system. Results The system could forecast the epidemic trend based on epidemiological characteristics. Furthermore, the system could estimate important epidemiologieal parameters by number of cases per day, and then forecast the epidemic trend. Conclusion The establishment of the prediction ＆ warning system for epidemics can improve the efficiency of epidemics treatment greatly.