平凉市小麦蚜虫发生程度预测模型研究

Study on Prediction Model of Occurrence Degree of Wheat Aphid in Pingliang City

利用平凉市30 a小麦蚜虫发生危害资料和气象资料,通过综合分析筛选出了影响平凉市小麦蚜虫发生程度的主要因子。采用逐步回归法建立了平凉市小麦蚜虫发生程度预测模型,回测结果表明,模型预测准确率为96.6%,与实际程度吻合。

Using the occurrence hazard data and meteorological data of Pingliang wheat aphid in 30 years, it is screened out that the main factors of the degree occurrence of wheat aphid in Pingliang city through a comprehensive analysis. The prediction model of occurrence degree of Pingliang wheat aphid were established by the stepwise regression method, and the measured results showed that the model prediction accuracy was 96.6%, fully consistent with the actual extent.