能源约束对经济增长和城市化影响的实证研究——以山东省为例

The Impacts of Energy Constraint on Economic Growth and Urbanization Process in Shandong Province

构建了CES生产函数,在此基础上构建了两种"增长尾效"模型,并且利用1978—2008年间山东省数据分别测算了能源对经济增长和城市化进程的约束程度。得出:在保持人均能源消耗量不变的情况下,若能源投入总量保持不变,山东省经济增长速度将降低1.09%,城市化进程速度降低0.52%;而在保持能源消耗增长速度不变的情况下,若能源投入零增长,经济增长速度将降低1.71%,城市化进程速度降低0.81%。由此可知,能源约束对山东省的经济增长和城市化进程的影响都是非常显著的。

The paper employs the classical ＂Growth Drag＂ model based on CES production function and analyzes the impacts of energy constraints on economics growth and urbanization process in Shandong Province, China during the period of 1978-2008. We found that the economic growth and urbanization process will decrease by 1.09% and 0.52%, respectively if the total amount of energy inputs keeps unchanged when per capita energy consumption is constant. For the other case, the economic growth and urbanization process will slow down by 1.71% and 0.81%, respectively if the energy input remains zero when energy consumption growth keeps constant. Therefore, we know that the impacts of energy constraint on economics growth and urbanization process in Shandong Province are very significant. According to empirical results, this paper provides the corresponding policies and methods for solving the bottleneck problem of Shandong Province under the huge pressure of energy saving and emission reduction.