钢闸门锈蚀速率的贝叶斯更新方法

A Bayesian updating method for analysis of corrosion rate of steel gate

为减少钢闸门锈蚀检测数据的失真性和锈蚀速率的不确定性,使水工金属结构安全评价结论更合理、更接近实际情况,采用贝叶斯理论对被评价工程的锈蚀速率进行更新。结果表明：贝叶斯理论更新方法能显著减小检测数据的失真性和锈蚀速率的不确定性。通过对多年工作中积累的钢闸门锈蚀检测历史数据资料进行统计分析,得到我国普通碳素钢在淡水中的锈蚀速率均值为0.044mm/a,且主要分布在0.016~0.055mm/a之间。

In order to reduce the inaccuracy of test data and uncertainty of corrosion rates of steel gates, and to obtain more reasonable and realistic results of safety evaluation of hydraulic steel structures, the Bayesian theory was used to update the corrosion rates of evaluated hydraulic projects. The results show that the Bayesian updating method can significantly reduce the inaccuracy of test data and uncertainty of corrosion rates. Through statistical analysis of historical data of corrosion detection of steel gates from many years＇ work, we obtained a mean corrosion rate of 0.044 mm/a for ordinary carbon steel in freshwater in China, and found that the value of the corrosion rate mainly ranged from 0.016 mm/a to O. 055 mm/a.