基于CA-Markov模型的乌梁素海地区苗八流域土地利用变化及预测

Prediction and change of land use in Miaoba watershed at the Ulansuhai district based on CA-Markov

以乌梁素海苗八流域为研究区,基于1986—2008年的土地利用数据,利用时间加权数学平均法构建土地利用空间转移概率矩阵,应用CA-Markov模型探索流域土地利用空间格局变化规律。结果表明,CA-Markov模型在苗八流域的最佳模拟尺度为5 m,模拟精度较高。时间加权数学平均方法运用于土地利用变化转移矩阵的构建能够帮助CA-Markov模型准确模拟流域的土地利用空间格局变化。在此基础上,还对本流域未来40年的土地利用空间格局进行了模拟预测。结果显示,苗八流域未来40年内土地利用空间格局变化趋势与研究期间相同。

To explore the principles of land use change at the Ulansuhai district, We took Miaoba as a typical watershed, analyzed the land use data of this area from 1986 to 2008. We constructed spatial transition probability matrix based on time-weighted mathematical average method and CA-Markov model to explore the principles of land use change. The result showed that the best simulation scale of CA-Markov in Miaoba was 5 meters and the spatial transition probability matrix based on time-weighted mathematical average method could make the simulation more precise. Base on this, this article simulated and predicted the land use spatial pattern over the next 40 years in Miaoba, and the conclusion was that the land use spatial pattern in this area over the next 40 years was the same to the present.