华东地区未来中强震的概率预测

Probability forecast for moderate strong earthquake in East China

利用概率统计方法 ,对华东地区 1 999～ 2 0 0 5年发生不同震级的地震概率进行预测 ,结果表明 ,该地区仍处于地震活跃时段 ,发生 5级地震的概率不断增加 ,到 2 0 0 0年发生 5级以上地震的平均概率为 0 .5左右 ,但近 1～ 2年内发生 6级以上地震的可能性不大 ,发震概率仅为0 .1 5。

By using probability statistical method,the probabilities of earthquakes occurrence for various magnitudes in East China from 1999 to 2005 are given.The results indicate that this region is still in seismologically active period.The probability of occurrence of M ≥5 0 is increasing,its average value will be 0 50 by 2000,but probability of M ≥6 0 in recent 1～2 years is small,be only 0 15.