基于协整检验的碳排放脱钩分析系统

Decoupling Analysis System of Carbon Emission Based on Cointegration Test

应用协整检验分析不同地区二氧化碳排放和GDP的长期稳定关系,提出了基于协整检验的碳排放脱钩分析系统。分析系统考虑了地区差异,通过建立差异评价指标形成脱钩影响因子。利用新建评价系统对2000～2008中国各省份碳排放和GDP数据进行分析,由于考虑了人口密度、能源结构、地区经济结构和森林覆盖面积,相较于传统的脱钩指标,部分省份的评价结果产生了差异,新建评价系统的分析结果能够更加准确、系统地反映了碳排放和GDP的脱钩关系,为评价不同地区的减排工作提供了有效地依据。

Decoupling analysis system of carbon emission is established based on using cointegration test on long-term stability between carbon emission and GDP in different area.Considering the regional disparity,the new system introduces decoupling impact factors by building differences evaluation indexes.Using the data of carbon emissions and GDP at provincial and regional levels in China between 2000 and 2008,the result of the new decoupling analysis system is different than the tradition system in some provinces by considering population density,energy structure,regional economic structure and forest covering area.The result can be more accurately and comprehensively reflect the decoupling relationship between carbon emission and GDP.And it can be the effective basis of evaluating the emission reduction work in different areas.