中国农业生产的技术效率衰退会终结吗?——基于开放与收敛视角的考察

Will the Recession of Efficiency in China’s Agriculture End?——An Investigation Based on the Angle of Openness and Convergence

【目的】过去数十年,中国农业生产的技术效率一直处于衰退之中。论文试图研究开放环境对中国农业生产技术效率的影响,进而预测中国农业生产技术效率在未来的走势。【方法】应用基于Malmquist指数的DEA和效率回归方法。【结果】中国农业生产技术效率存在显著的收敛倾向,并且这种倾向在开放环境中还会进一步增强。此外,中国农业生产技术效率的"均衡"水平在近年来已先于真实水平并开始复苏。【结论】在开放的推动下,中国农业生产的技术效率衰退将会终止,增长即将到来。

[Objective] The technology efficiency in China＇s agriculture had keep recession for decades. This paper tries to find the influence of the open environment on China＇s agricultural productivity, and answer whether the recession of efficiency in China＇s agriculture will end. [Method] A second stage regression using the output-oriented Malmquist productivity indexes and their decompositions of China＇s agricultural sector as dependent variables. [Result] A robust convergence in China＇s agricultural efficiency was found, which also has been enlarged by the open environment. It was also found that the ＂equilibrium＂ efficiency level was growing in the recent years. [Conclusion] The results show that the open environment will end the recession of China＇s agricultural efficiency at last.