气候变化对旅游业的影响:气候舒适度视角40座城市的定量分析

Impact of Climate Change on Tourism:Quantitative Analysis of 40 Cities from the Angle of Climate Comfort Degree

从气候舒适度的角度出发,在收集40座城市相关数据资料的基础上,利用旅游气候模型,估算气候变化对客流量的影响。研究结果表明:①气候舒适度变化对我国国内及入境旅游有重要影响,综合气候舒适指数每变化1个单位,国内及入境旅游客流量将增加或减少1.852万人次和35.263万人次;②重庆以北绝大部分城市年综合气候舒适指数上升,重庆以南绝大部分城市年综合舒适指数下降,40城市综合气候舒适指数整体上升15.0;③受气候舒适度变化影响,40城市国内及入境旅游客流量分别增加540.7万人次和28.4万人次;④30年来,气候舒适度的变化整体促进了我国国内及入境旅游业的发展。

From the climate comfort degree angle, models of domestic and inbound tourists are found by comprehensive comfort index and relevant data of climate and tourism of the 40 cities, and the influence of climate change on tourism is quantitatively ana- lyzed. Result shows that： ① Climate change has a heavy impact on domestic and inbound tourism, and the number of domestic and inbound tourists will increase （or decrease） 18,520 and 352,630 if the comprehensive climate comfort index changes one inte- grated; ②Comprehensive climate comfort index of most cities which are located in north of Chongqing city rises, and in south of Chongqing city falls. Comprehensive climate comfort index of 40 cities totally increased 15.0. Comprehensive climate comfort in- dex of most cities rises in January, February, March, April and November,and comprehensive climate comfort index of most cit- ies falls in May, June, July, August, September, October and December. ③ Influenced by the variation of climate comfort de- gree, domestic and inbound tourism traffic of 40 cities totally increased 5. 407 million and 28.4 million. Tourism traffic of most cities rises in January, February, March, April and November, and tourism traffic of most cities falls in May, June, July, Au- gust, September, October and December. ④Development of tourism in China is promoted by the variation of climate comfort de- gree in the last 30 years.