中国主要大气污染物和温室气体的排放特征与关联性

Emission Characteristics and Correlation of Main Air Pollutant and Greenhouse Gas in China

摸清我国大气污染物和温室气体排放的特征和关系,对制定大气污染物与温室气体的协同控制的相关政策具有重要的现实指导意义。选取中国大陆30个省(市、自治区)1995年-2010年省际和行业面板数据,应用数理统计分析方法对中国SO_2和CO_2的排放特征及二者的关联性进行了研究。结果显示:SO_2、CO_2排放总量的年际变化趋势相似;SO_2排放总量地区排放特征为西部>东部>中部>东北地区,CO_2排放总量地区排放特征为东部>中部>西部>东北地区,但西部地区的排放强度远高于中东部和东北地区;绝大部分的SO_2和CO_2排放量来自电力、热力行业,黑色金属行业,非金属矿物制品业和化学原料及化学制品制造业4个行业,其中,电力、热力行业的排放量最大,2010年电力、热力行业排放的SO_2和CO_2分别占行业排放总量的53%和55%;我国SO_2和CO_2排放量的相关系数r为0.806,且r_西部>r_中部>r_东北>r_东部,各地区之间由于治理水平的差距导致相关性差异显著。

Researching the characteristics and correlation of air pollutant and greenhouse gas has important practical guiding significance for government to formulate relevant policies on cooperative control of air pollutant and greenhouse gas in China. This paper has selected panel data of 30 provinces （Cities, Autonomous Regions） of china during 1995-2010, which include SO2 emission data from China Statistical Yearbook （1996-20ll） , CO2 emission data, Population data and GDP data from China Statistical Yearbook （1996-2011）. Based on those data, the paper has analyzed the emission characteristics of main air pollutant （SO2） and main greenhouse gas （CO2） by the method of mathematical statistics. Meanwhile, the paper has studied the correlation between SO2 and CO2 by Spearman correlation coefficient method using the soft of SPSS. The results show that the annual change trend of SO2 and CO2 in China have strong similarity. The trend is roughly divided into three stages： slow fluctuating growth stage during 1995-2001, rapid growth stage during 2002-2005 and decrease or slow increase stage during 2006-2010. From the perspective of regions, the emission levels of SO2 and CO2 have significant difference. The total emission characteristic of SO2 is： western area〉eastern area〉middle area〉northeast area, while the total emission characteristic of CO2 is： eastern area〉middle area〉western area〉northeast area. However, the emission intensity of western area is far higher than that of eastern area, middle area and northeast area. From the perspective of industry, most of the emissions of SO： and CO2 are from four key industries： Production and Distribution of Electric Power and Heat Power, Manufacture of Non-metallic Mineral Products, Smelting and Pressing of Ferrous Metals and Manufacture of Raw Chemical Materials and Chemical Products. Among the four key industries, the emission of Production and Distribution of Electric Power and Heat Power is the highest with the emissions of SO2 and CO2 in 2010 occupying 53% and 55% respectively of the total emission. The correlation coefficient ＂r＂ between SO2 and CO2 is 0.806, and rw 〉rmiadl 〉rnorth 〉 re The reason for this significant difference is the gap of governance lever among the areas.