植被覆盖变化分析及其预测方法研究——以吉林东部为例

Analysis on the Change of Vegetation Cover and Its Prediction Method

[目的]研究植被覆盖的动态变化及其预测方法。[方法]在GIS平台的支持下,以NDVI为主要数据源,对研究区不同年度植被覆盖情况进行空间叠置分析,揭示吉林东部近10年植被覆盖变化的空间分布规律。并利用马尔柯夫模型和灰色系统G(1,1)模型预测吉林东部植被覆盖的年度变化趋势。[结果]吉林东部植被覆盖有上升的趋势但总体变化不大,植被覆盖变化较大的区域主要分布在湖泊和河流周围。马尔柯夫和灰色系统G(1,1)两种模型的预测结果与实际观测结果基本吻合。[结论]该研究结果为有效地保护山区林地的植被覆盖提供了参考依据,同时,对于制定吉林省及全国的林地建设规划和社会经济可持续发展的科学决策均具有重要的参考价值。

[Objective] This study aimed to investigate the dynamic changes of vegetation cover and its prediction method.[Method] The NDVI was used as data source to perform the spatial overlay analysis on the vegetation coverage changes of the study area in different time period under the GIS platform,with the aim to reveal the spatial distribution rules of the vegetation cover in eastern Jilin Province during the recent 10 years.The Markov Model and Grey System G（1,1） theory model were used to predict the vegetation cover change trend in Eastern Jilin Province.[Result] The vegetation cover increased a little,but staying stable in general.The regions with great changes were mainly around the lake and river.The prediction results of Markov Model and Grey System G（1,1） theory model were consistent with the observed measurement.[Conclusion] This study provided referential basis for the effective protection of the vegetation coverage in mountainous forest,and important reference value for the scientific decision-making on the forest construction planning in Jilin Province as well as in China and sustainable development of social economy.