基于GIS和Markov模型的土地利用时空变化研究

Analysis of Spatial-Temporal Changes of Land Use Based on GIS and Markov Model

[目的]研究模拟土地利用的时空动态变化,以期为提高土地集约化程度、实施土地持续利用提供一定的依据。[方法]选取黄土高原罗屿沟流域2002年、2006年和2010年3期遥感数据,在RS/GIS技术支持下,结合软件ERDAS8.6进行图像预处理,通过监督分类获取罗屿沟土地利用现状图。在分析土地利用现状的基础上,采用Arcview3.2空间分析模块求得土地利用转移矩阵,应用Markov模型对罗屿沟流域未来土地时空变化过程进行模拟分析和定量预测。[结果]近10年来,罗屿沟流域土地利用变化速度较快,总的变化率达到2.016%,变化总面积2 847.29 hm2。其中,林地和坡耕地都有不同幅度的增加,林地总面积增加了7.24%,年平均增长高达0.8%,而坡耕地面积增加了4.78%,年平均增长0.53%,河床地、草地和未利用地面积逐年减少,其中河床地和未利用地分别减少了46.23%和38.22%;未来土地利用类型仍然是以林地和坡耕地为主,二者总面积达到89.48%时,土地利用结构会处于稳定状态。[结论]该研究为土地的合理利用提供了数据支持,同时也对实施土地持续利用具有一定的借鉴意义。

[Objective] The paper was to study the spatial-temporal dynamic changes of land use,in order to provide basis for improvement of land intensive degree and implementation of sustainable land use.[Method] Supported by RS/GIS technology,combined with software ERDAS8.6,the remote sensing data of Luoyugou in 2002,2006 and 2010 were selected for image preprocessing,and the status quo of Luoyugou land was obtained by supervised classification.Based on the analysis of land use status,Arcview3.2 spatial analysis module was used to get the transfer matrix of land use,and Markov model was used for simulation analysis and quantitative prediction of further land spatial-temporal change process in Luoyugou basin.[Result] In the last decade,the change rate of land use in Luoyugou basin was rapid,the overall change rate reached 2.016%,and the total change area was 2 847.29 hm2.The woodland and farmland had different degrees of increase,and the total area of woodland increased by 7.24% with an average annual increase rate of 0.8%.The farmland area was increased by 4.78% with an average annual increase rate of 0.53%.The area of riverbed,virginland and grassland reduced year by year,and the riverbed and virginland had reduced by 46.23% and 38.22%.The land use types in future mainly are woodland and farmland,the land use structure will be in stable condition as the total area of both reached 89.48%.[Conclusion] The study provided data support for reasonable use of land,which also had certain reference significance for implementation of sustainable land use.