影响地方政府债务规模因素的实证分析——以辽宁省为例

An Empirical Analysis of the Factors affecting the scale of Local Government Debt——Take Liaoning Province for example

从近些年的现实来看,土地财政和债务问题是地方政府避之不去的两大难题。地方政府土地财政及政府债务问题的存在无论对本级财政还是对整个经济体系都会产生一定的负面影响,甚至形成财政风险,影响财政的稳定和健康。本文以全面认识并规范我国地方政府债务为主题,以剖析影响我国地方政府债务规模因素为突破点,以辽宁省本级政府债务为研究对象,采用计量分析方法,建立地方政府债务规模的均衡误差修正模型,以揭示影响辽宁省地方债务规模的主要因素并提出缓解地方政府债务膨胀趋势的建议。

In recent years, land finance and local government debt are two big problems, which have produced negative effect on both local government finance and the entire economy, even built up financial risk, and affected financial stability and health. With full understanding and regulating local government debt as its theme, this paper analyses the factors affecting the scale of China＇s local government debt as its breakthrough point, uses quantitative analysis methods, and establishes balanced error correction model of local government debt in order to reveal the main factors affecting the local debt in Liaoning province and formulates recommendations to alleviate the expansion of local government debt.