中国对外直接投资与逆向技术外溢的关系——基于熵和耗散结构理论

Relationship between Outward Direct Investment and Reverse Technology Spillover:Based on Entropy and Dissipative Structure Theory

基于一国技术进步是耗散结构的假设,构建了我国对外直接投资与国内技术进步之间的灰关联熵模型,并运用2003—2010年的数据实证检验了逆向技术外溢效应的存在性。结果表明:2003—2008年期间,我国对外直接投资对国内技术进步并没有持续、显著的作用,此期间并不存在逆向技术外溢;2009年和2010年我国的对外直接投资给国内技术进步带来了负熵流,此期间存在逆向技术外溢,并且它推动了国内技术向良性方向发展。该结果意味着,对外直接投资是一把"双刃剑",有可能增加我国技术进步的熵值,也可能导致负熵流入、促进我国的技术进步。最后提出,我国企业不能盲目进行对外直接投资,应质量和数量并重,以使对外直接投资为我国带来持续的负熵流。

On the assumption that technology progress in a country is a dissipative structure,thls paper sets up a grey relation entropy model between outward direct investment and technology progress of home country,and empirically analyzes the effect of reverse technology spillover through using the data of China during 2003-2010. The result shows as follows： during 2003-2008, the relationship between outward direct in- vestment and technology progress is not significant, which is not able to prove the existence of reverse technology spillover effect ~ while outward direct investment in 2009 and 2010 continually encourage technology development,which shows reverse technology spillover effect. This result implies that outward direct investment is a two-side sword, namely,outward direct investment may make the entropy of China＇s technology pro- gress increased,and may result in negative entropy flow. Therefore, China＇s enterprises should not invest oversea blindly, but pay attention to both quality and quantity, and continuously promote domestic technology progress.