我国货币政策调控的验证与未来走势判断——基于经典货币政策规则的分析视角

The Validation and Future Trend Judgment of China's Monetary Policy Control——Based on the Perspective of Classical Monetary Policy Rules

本文运用麦卡勒姆规则原式和泰勒规则原式对当前及过去一段时期我国的货币政策调控进行了检验,并对下一步走势进行了分析判断。结果表明,两种规则均能很好地衡量中国的货币政策,对政策调控具有较强的指示价值。通过对当前实际值与规则值的比较以及领先期规则值的计算分析,文章认为前一阶段稳健货币政策已经取得了较好的效果,当前货币条件较为适中,紧缩周期结束,但短期内政策放松的条件并不具备。下一阶段政策或有微调,但稳健取向不会改变。

The paper inspects current and past China＇s monetary policy control by using the original type of McCallum Rule and Taylor Rule and analyzes the future trend of the policy. The results show that both of the two rules fit well with China＇s monetary policy, and can serve as the implementation guidelines for monetary policy control. By comparing the rule value with the actual value and analyzing the leading period rule value, the paper considers that the steady monetary policy has obtained a good effect, the current monetary condition is appropriate, and tightening cycle should be ended. But the relaxed conditions in short term are not mature. The policy may be finely tuned in the next phase, but the steady orientation won＇t be changed.