汇率变动对中国出口商品结构影响的实证检验

Empirical Test of Exchange Rate Fluctuation Effect on China's Export Commodity Structure

2005年以来,人民币兑美元汇率连续上升。那么,人民币汇率的变动尤其是升值预期的增强是否会影响中国出口商品结构变动?本文运用协整向量自回归模型,建立了出口商品结构与实际有效汇率之间的关系,考察人民币汇率升值是否有助于出口商品结构的优化。结果表明,人民币升值将有助于中国出口商品结构的优化。

Since 2005, the exchange rate of RMB has been continuously appreciating against the U.S. dollar. Will the fluctuation of RMB or even the increase of expected appreciation affect China＇s export commodity structure？ This paper, with co-integration VAR model, analyzing the relationship between the export commodity structure and the real effective exchange rate, investigates whether the appreciation of RMB would optimize the structure of export commodity. We find that in the long run, the appreciation of RMB will improve the export commodity structure obviously.