后危机时代中资银行对外扩张模式选择的博弈分析

Game Analysis of the Overseas Expansion of Chinese Banks in the Post-crisis Era

本文分别从完全信息动态博弈和不完全信息动态博弈这两个角度,对银行新建投资和并购两种对外投资模式的选择进行了分析,从理论上验证了并购是中资银行拓展海外市场的理性选择。并结合中资银行已开展的海外并购活动,得出后危机时代中资银行施行"走出去"战略的启示。

This paper is from the perspective of Dynamic Games of Complete Information and Incomplete Information and makes game analysis or two foreign investment modes including Greenfield investment and Merger, and proves the conclusiontheoretically that merger is rational choice for Chinese banks to expand in overseas market. We provide the enlightenment of Chinese banks implement ＂goingout＂ strategyinthepost-crisiserathroughintegratingChinesebanks＇overseasmergerbehavior.