通货膨胀对主要影响因素的动态响应:基于向量自回归模型(VAR)的实证研究

Inflation's Dynamic Response to Major Factors:Empirical Research Based on VAR Model

本文对30多年来中国的通货膨胀对主要宏观影响因素冲击的动态响应进行了定量研究。研究发现:通胀本身具有持续效应,GDP增长率、货币供给M2增长率、固定资产投资能够造成通货膨胀压力。通货膨胀率自身的传导效应很大,通货膨胀一旦出现将会持续一段时期。

This paper studies China＇s inflation dynamic response to the major macroeconomic factors during past 30 years quantitatively. The study shows that inflation itself has sustained effect; GDP and M2 growth rate, and fixed assets investment have pressure on inflation; inflation itself has great transmission effect and inflation would sustain for long time once occur; GDP＇ s fixed growth mode has great pressure on inflation; money supply changes effect is eventually reflected by price level ; excess fixed assets investment which leads to overheated economy will also has pressure on inflation.