极端事件对人类系统的影响

Impacts of Climate Extremes on Human Systems

在IPCC特别报告《管理极端事件和灾害风险,推进气候变化适应》中,极端天气气候事件对人类系统的影响是最重要的影响评估内容之一,其评估结果为:极端影响可能缘于极端天气气候事件,但也可能并非极端事件的后果。暴露度和脆弱性是灾害风险的重要决定因素;极端和非极端天气气候事件的严重程度和影响在很大程度上取决于对这些事件的脆弱性和暴露度水平;人居模式、城市化和社会经济状况的变化已经影响观测到的脆弱性和暴露度的变化趋势;无论在发达国家还是发展中国家,沿海人居环境均暴露于极端事件,并受其影响,如小岛屿国家和亚洲大三角洲地区;脆弱人口还包括难民、国内流离失所的人和那些生活在边远地区的人;极端事件将极大地影响与气候联系密切的部门,如水、农业、食物安全、健康和旅游业。

IPCC launched the special report of ＂Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation＂ （SREX）, of which impacts on human systems is one of the most important contents. This paper introduces the main assessment results. Extreme impacts can result from extreme weather and climate events, but can also occur without extreme events. The severity of the impacts of extreme and non-extreme weather and climate events depends strongly on the level of exposure and vulnerability to these events. Settlement patterns, urbanization, and changes in socioeconomic status have all influenced observed trends in vulnerability and exposure to climate extremes. Coastal settlements are exposed and vulnerable to climate extremes in both developed and developing countries, such as in small island states andAsian megadeltas. Vulnerable populations also include refugees, internally displaced people, and those living in marginal areas. Extreme events will have greater impacts on sectors with close links to climate, such as water, agriculture and food security, health, and tourism.