喜马拉雅山区1951-2010年气候变化事实分析

Analysis on Himalayan Climate Change in 1951-2010

选择喜马拉雅山南北两侧有代表性的13个气象站1951—2010年的气温、降水资料,分析这些台站气候变化总体趋势、年代际变化及突变特征,结果表明:1961—2010年整个喜马拉雅山区的气温总体呈显著上升趋势,平均升温速率为0.38℃/10a。1970—1990年代升温在加速,2000年代升温速率则有所放缓。中段地区各站在2000年左右发生一次显著的升温突变,而西段和东段虽都出现升温突变,但出现的时间差异较大。1971—2010年喜马拉雅山区的降水在西段呈减少趋势,中段、东段大致呈现出微弱增加趋势,但总体变化趋势不明显。降水的年代际变化也表现为1970—1990年代略有增加,2000年代则有所减少。降水突变在西段以减少为主,在中段和东段以增加为主,但各站发生突变的年代很不一致。

Using the temperature and precipitation data of 1951 2010 at 13 representative weather observation stations on the southern and northern slopes of the Himalayas, climate trends, decadal variation characteristics and abrupt changes were analyzed. Remarkable increasing trends of annual temperatures were detected and the linear warming trend over 1961-2010 was 0.38 ℃/10a. The decadal temperature increasing rate accelerated from the 1970s to 1990s, but slowed down in the 2000s. A noteworthy abrupt climatic warming appeared in the central Himalayas around 2000, and an abrupt warming change also occurred in the western and eastern sections of the Himalayas but in the 1980s and 1990s, respectively. The precipitation exhibited a slight decline trend in the western section of the Himalayas but a weak rise trend in the central and eastern sections in 1971-2010, and on the whole, there was no obvious trend in precipitation. The decadal precipitation increased a little bit from the 1970s to 1990s but decreased slightly over the 2000s. The decadal precipitation showed an abrupt decline change mainly in western Himalayas, and an abrupt rise change mainly in the central and eastern sections although those abrupt changes occurred in different decades.