基于Gompertz曲线模型之上的中国千人汽车保有量中长期预测

The Medium and Long Term Forecast of China's Vehicle Stock per 1000 Person Based on the Gompertz Model

本研究从整个汽车产业的角度出发,站在国家经济发展的背景下利用人均GDP和汽车保有量的Gompertz曲线模型预测了我国汽车保有量在未来几十年内的发展趋势,我们借鉴了OECD发达国家和新加坡等新兴发展中国家汽车保有量达到饱和的发展历程,在它们的经验之上并结合我国的实际情况测算我国的汽车保有量,结果显示中国的汽车保有量已经在沿着Gompertz曲线的轨迹向前发展,并且已经进入了一个高速发展时期,2001~2008年的历史数据显示,这段时间内的中国汽车千人保有量以每年3.37辆的速度在上升,在之后的预测期内,这种快速上升的趋势会一直持续下去直至2037年左右,这期间中国千人汽车保有量,快则以每年7.29辆的速度,慢则以每年2.34辆,中等以每年4.8辆的速度增长,2037年之后,中国的汽车保有量会进入饱和期,其增长速度放缓,保有量高则达到310,低则达到106,中等达到217辆的水平,对应的人均GDP分别为每年40万元,25万元和9万元（2009年价格水平）。

This paper employs the Gompertz model of GDP per capita and the vehicle stock to forecast the vehicle stock of China inthe coming decades, with the background of economic growth, from the point of view of the whole automobile industry. We study the pro- cedure of vehlcle stock reaching its saturation level in the OECD countries and some emerging economies such as Singapore. Then we fore- cast the level of vehicle stock in China based on these countries＇ experience and China＇s teal economic situation The forecast results show that Chlna＇s vehicle stock has developed acconting to Gomportz pattern and it has moved into a rapid development period. The historical da-ta from 2001 to 2008 indieatee that China＇s vehicle stock per 1000 person increases by 3.8 every year. During the forecast period after- wards, this rapid development of vehicle stock will continue until 2037. china＇s vehicle stock per 1000 person increases by 7.29 ff with thehigh growth rate during the period of 2009 to 2037, increases by 2.34 if with the low growth rate and increases by 4.8 if with the moderate growth rate. After 2037, China＇s vehicle stock Wiu reach its saturation level and its devdolanent slow down. The vehicle stock at that time could be 310 if with the high growth rate, 106 if with the low growth rate and 217 if with the moderate growth rate. The corresponding GDP per capita eottld be 400,000 yuan, 250,000 yuan and 90,000 yuan per year （at 2009 price level）.