生态系统服务复杂关系研究的机遇、挑战与对策

Opportunity,challenge and countermeasure for studying relationship among multiple ecosystem services

理解多种生态系统服务之间的相互影响已经成为可持续发展科学的热点与前沿.本文总结了多种生态系统服务间复杂关系的分析方法与模型研究的最新进展,分析了当前研究中的问题和难点,并提出了一种新的交叉学科研究路线,即利用来自基因调控研究的布尔网络模型为生态系统服务间的复杂互动提供建模和模拟分析平台.以食物生产系统的4项基本生态服务的关系为案例,设定1个基本情景和1个调控情景,分析4项生态系统服务的相互关系变化对系统功能的影响.结果表明,运用布尔网络模型可以在简单规则和少量数据的条件下,模拟多个生态服务之间非线性的复杂相互作用,并能为研究调控多种生态服务提供建议.本文是对基因调控网络模拟多生态系统服务间相互关系的能力和合理性的初步验证可为进一步开展该领域研究提供参考.

Theoretical understanding behind the relationships among multiple ecosystem services has been the hotspot of sustainable development. In this paper, we summarize the lasted advances in modeling and analyzing the complex relationship among multiple ecosystem services, mine the questions in current researches and provide a new way based on the interdisciplinary approach. We model the interaction among multiple ecosystem services by boolean network from the genetic regulatory studies. Taking four major ecosystems services of general food production system, we establish one baseline scenario and one regulation scenario, and study the influence of the interaction among multiple ecosystem services to ecosystem functions. The result proofed that, with simple rules and data, Boolean network model could simulate nonlinear and complex relationships among multiple ecosystems services, and provide effective suggestions for ecosystem regulation. This work provides an initial validation of ability and rationality of Boolean network in modeling complex behaviors of multiple ecosystem services, and has illuminations on future studies in the field.