城市旅游发展效率的时空格局演化特征及其驱动机制——以泛长江三角洲地区为例

The space-time pattern evolution and its driving mechanism of urban tourism development efficiency:A case study of Pan-Yangtze River Delta

借助DEA模型和ArcGIS空间分析模块,系统的分析了1998～2008年泛长三角城市旅游发展效率的时空格局演化特征,依据全要素生产率的变动分解模型(Malmquist指数),对TFP变化的总体趋势、结构及空间格局的演化过程进行了综合探讨。结果表明:泛长三角城市旅游发展效率总体上呈现提高态势,市域间差异表现为较为明显波动性特征,旅游发展效率的空间格局形成与演化存在空间关联,综合效率、纯技术效率、规模效率在空间上均表现较为显著的空间自相关,且综合效率和规模效率形成了较为相似的变化格局,而全要素生产率变化呈现弱集聚,相邻地域单元关联性较差。针对旅游发展效率的时空格局演化的驱动机制进行剖析表明,经济政策导向驱动、旅游生产单元价值驱动及旅游消费需求刺激驱动共同驱使导致了旅游发展效率在空间范畴上格局置换。

With the help of DEA model and ArcGIS spatial analysis module, the paper sys- tematically analyzes the evolution of temporal and spatial pattern of urban tourism devel- opment of Pan-Yangtze River Delta from 1998 to 2008. According to the change decompo- sition model of total factor productivity （Malmquist index）, it comprehensively discusses the evolutionary process of overall trend of TFP change, structure and the temporal and spatial pattern. The results show that the urban tourism development efficiency of Pan- Yangtze River Delta has presented an increasing trend and characteristics of urban differ- ence display a distinct fluctuation. Formation and evolution of the spatial pattern of tourism development efficiency have the spatial relationship. Overall efficiency, pure tech- nical efficiency and scale efficiency have a significant spatial autocorrelation, at the same time overall efficiency and scale efficiency have formed a similar changing pattern. Howev- er, the change of total factor productivity displays weak clustering and the correlation of adjacent geographical units is not good. Autocorrelation and its change of tourism develop- ment efficiency cause the spatial unbalance of tourism development efficiency to a large ex tent. Therefore, the spatial cost effect made by location in the process of tourism develop- ment is more distinct and the characteristic of geographical space plays a crucial role in the process of tourism development efficiency. The analytical result of the driving mechanism of temporal and spatial pattern evolution of tourism development efficiency shows that the three driving aspects of economic policy orientation, tourism production unit value and tourism consumption demand stimulus lead to the spatial pattern replacement of tourism development efficiency.