中东动荡对巴以问题的影响及前景展望

Israeli-Palestinian Issue in the Middle East Turmoil and Its Prospect

2011年以来的中东动荡对巴以问题具有深远影响。从近期看,虽然巴以问题在中东地区的外交议程上位置后移,但是巴勒斯坦、以色列的战略生存环境均在发生重大变化,双方的内部政治生态也有新的演变。巴以之间不仅围绕定居点、边界、耶路撒冷地位、难民回归等核心议题的立场悬殊,还在以色列国家属性、巴勒斯坦非军事化等其他争议问题上较量不休。从中长期看,随着中东地区新的阿拉伯政权的诞生和步入施政阶段,巴勒斯坦问题有可能重新升温,恢复其作为中东地区核心问题的本来面貌,并成为地区国家之间进行竞争博弈的重要外交舞台。然而,由于导致巴以和谈停滞的阻碍因素继续存在,巴以重启和谈的希望仍然渺茫。

The unrest sweeping the Middle East since early 2011 has profound implications for the Israeli - Palestinian issue. In the short run, the Israeli - Pales- issue seems to have been eclipsed by other burning items on the regional diplo- matic agenda, and yet changes have occurred in both the external environment and internal politics of Israel and Palestine. The conflict between the two sides witnesses not only widening gaps on core issues including settlements, border, status of Jeru- salem and the return of refugees, but simmering disputes on other thorny issues as well, including the ethnic status of the Israeli state and the demilitarization arrange- ment of the future Palestinian state, etc. In the mid - and - long run, when the new Arab regimes in the Middle East have taken office and moved to tackle with govern- ance, the Palestinian issue is to return to the limelight, and tant diplomatic arena where interest of regional countries co each other. With all barriers in place against the Israeli - P hope of their resumption in the near future is still slim. reemerge as an impor- nverge or conflict with alestinian peace talks,