浅析美军撤离后伊拉克政治重建的安全环境

The Analysis on Security Environment of Iraq's Reconstruction Progress after U.S.Army's Withdrawal

自2010年以来,伊拉克国内权力分配逐渐失衡,逊尼派在政治斗争中被边缘化。随着美国撤离伊拉克,美国、沙特、伊朗和土耳其等域外或地区大国在维持伊拉克统一的问题早已达成共识并不断加强对伊拉克内政的干涉与渗透,这归因于伊拉克重建类型并非是内生自主型,而是外部控制和影响下的半自主型。当前,伊拉克国内累积的矛盾正在迅速演化为政治危机,政治区域化趋势加强和权力分配是国家重建进程的焦点。伊拉克安全局势的走向则取决于各派未来能否达成新的分权协议。

Ever since 2010, the distribution of power in Iraq has been out of balance, and the Sunnis have been marginalized. Just after the U. S. Army＇ s with- drawal, the powers which share the common attitude and policy towards Iraq＇ s unity keep on intervening in its domestic affairs in a much deeper and harder way, and a political crisis between the Sunnis and Shiites stepped forward immediately. The bas- ic reason of Iraq＇ s chaos is that the reconstruction progress is not endogenous inde- pendent, but semi -independence with external control. So the complicated and in- tense power struggles combined with interventions make the reconstruction and stabil- ity even harder to get. In the near future, the security environment will depend on a new power- sharing agreement among all parties.