美国外交政策周期理论：视角、述评与现实检验

Cyclical Theories of US Foreign Policy : Perspectives , Critiques and Empirical Tests

考察美国立国以来的外交政策演变轨迹的视角大体上有两种:一是阶段性演化视角,认为美国外交政策运行呈现出一种阶段性变化的演化轨迹;二是周期视角(或曰钟摆视角),认为美国外交政策演变遵循一定的钟摆定律,在两种情绪或范式之间不断转换。在研究美国外交政策历史时,学界大都运用前一种视角而忽视后一种视角。自20世纪50年代起,美国学界开始对美国外交政策演变的周期性规律进行研究,形成了以法兰克·克林伯格为代表的"内向—外向"情绪交替理论、迈克尔·罗斯金的"干涉主义—非干涉主义"范式转换理论以及杰克·霍尔姆斯的"情绪/利益"理论。美国外交政策周期理论既有学理价值,又存在难以克服的不足。研究该理论对于了解美国外交政策的演变规律、认清当前美国外交政策所处的周期阶段及其对华政策的影响均具有重要的现实意义。

There are two general perspectives on the evolution of U.S. foreign policy since the founding of the United States.The first argues that U.S.foreign policy has evolved through a series of phases ; the second argues that it has swung back and forth through different cycles like a pendulum with a certain degree of regularity.Since the 1950s , American scholars have started to research cyclical patterns in the evolution of U.S.foreign policy , and several theories have emerged , including : Frank Klingburg ’ s theory of alternative moods of foreign policy which is characterized by a shift between ' extroversion ' and ' introversion ;' Michael Roskin ’ s theory of shifting paradigms which views U.S.foreign policy as shifting from ' interventionism ' to ' non-interventionism ,' and Jack Holmes ’ mood / interest theory of foreign policy.While cyclical theories of American foreign policy have much scholarly value , they also suffer from inadequacies that are difficult to overcome.Research on these theories can prove helpful for understanding patterns in the evolution of U.S.foreign policy , identifying the present cycle within which U.S.foreign policy falls and understanding how these cycles might impact U.S.policy towards China.