图书采访的读者需求量预测方法与实证研究

A Prediction Method and Empirical Study on Reader Demands in Book Acquisition

我国图书馆普遍存在纸质图书质量欠佳与藏书利用率偏低的问题,理论与实践研究中鲜见卓有成效的解决方法。本文提出了预订新书的读者需求量的预测方法,以嘉应学院图书馆为例,通过线性回归分析、t检验和相关度分析三种方法的统计分析表明,预测结果与实际结果吻合良好。在预测读者需求量的基础上采用新的复本决策,结果表明,该决策方法能够大幅度提高藏书利用率和购书经费的使用效率。

This paper creates a prediction method for reader demands in book acquisition. By taking Jiaying University library as an example, and using linear regression analysis, t - test and correlation analysis, the analysis result suggests that the prediction results is in good agreement with the practical results. New method of duplicate number decision is adopted on the basis of reader demands, which could improve the utilization rate of collection and the efficiency of book - purchasing funds.