2012年3—5月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验

Performance Verification of the Medium-Range Forecasts for T639,ECMWF and Japan Models from March to May 2012

为了更好地应用T639模式中期预报产品,对2012年3—5月T639模式96、120和144小时预报产品进行了天气学检验,并与ECMWF、日本模式进行了对比分析。结果表明:三种模式均对亚洲中高纬度环流形势的调整和演变具有较好的预报性能。综合来看,ECMWF模式对各系统及要素的预报最接近实况;日本模式和T639模式次之。另外,选取了2012年4月22—23日的沙尘天气个例进行分析,发现日本模式对于此次沙尘天气过程的地面高压系统的中期预报指示意义最好。

In order to improve the ability to use the products of T639, a synoptic verification on its medium- range forecasts in spring 2012 is made in comparison with the NWP products of ECMWF and Japan mod- els. The results show that the three models have good performances on the aspect of predicting the large- scale circulation evolution and adjustment in Asian middle and high latitude areas. As a whole, the ECM- WF model is better in forecasting most weather systems compared with the T639 and Japan models. Tak- ing the sandstorm process during the period of April 22--23, 2012 as a case, it is found that the Japan model is more effective than the other two models in sing the sand and dust weather process. medium-range forecasts of strong surface wind, cau