摘要
为探求中国年最大致洪暴雨落区的规律,对1900～2010年中国历年最大致洪暴雨落区进行编号,将暴雨落区的空间分布转化为年最大致洪暴雨落区编号的时间序列。为揭示年最大致洪暴雨落区的随机性,采用Mann-Kendall法和小波分析法分析了该序列的趋势性、突变性和周期性。结果显示年最大致洪暴雨呈现向东部季风区迁移机率增大的趋势,年最大致洪暴雨的落区和年际迁移轨迹存在约27年的第一主周期、7.5年的第二周期。
In order to study the law of the regional distribution and the moving trajectory of flood-causing annual max- imum storm （ FCAMS ） in China, this study converts the FCAMS into time series by numbering the regions during 1900- 2010. For exploring the randomieity of FCAMS, the methods of Mann-Kendall and wavelet analysis are adopted to analyze the trend and periodicity of the FCAMS series. The result shows that flood-causing annual maximum storm has larger probability transfer to the Eastern Monsoon Areas in China and therer esxists the principal period of about 27 years and the secondary period of about 7.5 years.
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2012年第8期1-4,62,共5页
Water Resources and Power
