城市洪水灾害及人员撤离模型建立与仿真

Modeling and Simulation for City Flood Inundation on Tracks and Personnel Evacuation

关于洪水灾害人员撤离优化问题,为确保安全,减少损失,建立了一种特定条件下城市洪水淹没模型以及人员撤离模型,通过对模型的研究提供紧急情况下的人员撤离方案。首先对高程模型进行栅格化,并使用体积法来描述长期下雨和上游防洪大坝溃坝情况下的洪水淹没和演进模型,以确定洪水到达城市各地点的时间和水量;然后使用8-联通搜索算法对洪水淹没区域进行搜索,以确定安全区域和每个安全区域能容纳的人数;通过计算每个人员聚集地到达安全点的距离,并考虑保护公共财产、老年人,小孩先撤离的条件,建立以时间和道路通行量最小为目标的人员撤离双目标优化模型。最后在ArcGIS+.NET平台上进行仿真,结果表明,效果非常接近实际,能为突发的洪灾所带来的公共安全问题及时提供决策依据。

The flood inundation model and personnel evacuation model of the city in a particular conditions were studied in this paper, and then the personnel evacuation proposals were provided for the government in emergency. Firstly, to determine the time of the flood arriving to the city location, the elevation model was rasterized, and volume method was used to describe the flood inundation model and evolution model in the long - term rain and upstream flood control dam dam - break. Secondly, to determine the security zones and the number of each zone accommoda- ted, the search - algorithms based on 8 - Unicorn were used to search the flood areas. Through calculating the dis- tance from the gathering place to the safety point for each person, and taking into account the conditions of protection of the public property, the aged and the children to the priority of withdrawal, the two - object optimization model which minimizes the amount of time and road traffic as the target for personnel evacuation was proposed. Finally, ArcGIS ＋. NET platform was used for simulation. From the simulation results, it can be seen that the simulation re- sults are very close to reality.