流行性乙型脑炎发病率的气象影响因子分析

Analysis on influence of meteorological factors on Japanese encephalitis incidence

目的探讨山西省运城地区流行性乙型脑炎(乙脑)发病率与气象因子之间的关系。方法收集2000-2009年7-9月运城地区乙脑发病率及同期气象资料,用SPSS17.0软件分析两者相关性,并用逐步回归分析建立乙脑发病率的气象因子拟合模型。结果运城地区乙脑病例多在6月开始出现,7月增多,8月达到高峰,9月减少,10月偶有发生。乙脑发病率与月平均温度、月平均气压等相关,与月温差、月日照、相对湿度、月降雨量无关。逐步回归分析得出乙脑发病率的气压回归方程,ap1(提前1个月的平均气压)有良好的拟合效果。结论气象因子对乙脑发病有重要影响,可以利用气压拟合模型预测乙脑发病率变化趋势。

Objective To investigate the correlation between Japanese encephalitis （JE） incidence and meteorological factors in Yuncheng, Shanxi province, China. Methods The data on the JE incidence and meteorological factors in Yuncheng from July to September in 2000-2009 were collected. The correlation between JE incidence and meteorological factors was analyzed using SPSS 17.0 software, and a fitting model was developed by stepwise regression analysis to determine the relationship between JE incidence and meteorological factors. Results In Yuncheng, JE cases appeared in June, then the number of cases increased in July, reached the peak value in August, and decreased in September, and sporadic occurrence of JE was seen in October. The JE incidence was correlated with monthly mean temperature and monthly mean atmospheric pressure, but not with monthly temperature range, monthly sunlight radiation, relative humidity, and monthly precipitation. The stepwise regression analysis revealed a regression equation between JE incidence and atmospheric pressure, which showed that ap1 （the mean atmospheric pressure one month before） could better predict JE incidence. Conclusion Meteorological factors play an important role in JE occurrence. The JE incidence can be predicted by a fitting model using atmospheric pressure.