产业经济发展对碳排放影响的实证分析

An empirical analysis of the impacts of industry economic development on carbon emission

依赖于传统能源消费的经济增长往往带来巨大的碳排放。对于强调"十二五"经济转型的浙江省,需要探讨经济增长方式与碳排放的关系,从而探索基于减排目标的可持续经济发展之路。本研究基于产业-能源消费和能源-碳排放2个基本判断模型,运用1990-2009年相关数据分析了浙江省产业发展、能源消费结构以及碳排放之间的关系。结果表明:浙江省产业结构演进与能源消费之间存在着显著的正相关关系,而能源消费结构的变动则对浙江省碳排放影响不明显。基于此,笔者提出了基于减排目标的协调能源利用与产业经济增长的政策建议,即开发新能源技术,促使能源消费结构不断多元化;加强工业企业节能技术改造,提高能源利用效率;积极发挥经济优势,引导金融机构为低碳产业服务。

The economic growth which relies on the traditional energy consumption will lead to huge carbon emission. It＇s essential to study the relationship between economic growth mode and carbon emission, and maintain sustainable economic development on the basis of carbon emission reduction for Zhejiang Province which aims at economy transition in the 12th Five-year Plan. On the basis of two models including industry- energy consumption model, and energy-carbon emission model, this paper used the data during 1990-2009 to analyze the relationship among industry development, energy consumption structure and carbon emission in Zhejiang Province. The results indicated that there was a significant positive correlation between the industrial structure evolution and energy consumption but an insignificant impact of changes in energy consumption structure on carbon emission in Zhejiang. The authors proposed emission cuts-oriented policies on integrating energy utilization and industry economic growth, i.e., developing new energy technologies, promoting diversified energy consumption structure, enhancing the transformation of energy-saving technologies of industrial enterprises, improving energy utilization efficiency, financial organizations to serve low-carbon industries. making use of economic advantages and guiding the [Ch, 2 fig. 11 ref.]