中国民航运输航空器偏/冲出跑道统计分析

Statistical analysis on runway excursion of transport aircraft in China

为了查找民航运输航空器偏/冲出跑道事件的共性特点及成因,对比了国外不同研究机构的相关数据,统计分析了1996年至2010年间中国民航偏/冲出跑道事件。结果表明,6月、7月、8月因常常伴有降水、雷暴等复杂天气现象,事件数量最为集中;着陆阶段航空器偏出跑道是本类事件中最突出的问题。驾驶术欠缺、CRM失效、复杂气象条件、违反SOP、夜航或受灯光不利影响是促成着陆阶段偏出跑道的主要因素。当两种或两种以上风险因素同时存在时,因耦合效应着陆偏出跑道事件的发生概率会明显增加。

In order to find the common features and causes of runway excursion toward transport aircraft, relevant data from different abroad research institutes were eontrastively studied, and runway excursion events in China from 1996 to 2010 were also statistically analyzed. The result showed that there are more runway excursion events due to precipitation and thunderstorm or other complicated weather occurred in June, July and August. Veer off during landing phase is the prominent issue. The major contributing factors include deficiency of piloting technology, fail- ure of crew resource management, complex weather conditions and violation of standard operation procedure, night operation or adverse influence from lights. When simultaneity of two or more risky factors occurs, the probability of this kind event will significantly increase due to coupling effect.