经济增长、强势货币与人民币国际化——基于人民币升值的实证分析

Economic Growth,Strong Currency and RMB Internationalization:Empirical Analysis Based on RMB Appreciation

本文基于中国经济增长时间序列和对外贸易的混合数据,证实了经济增长和对外贸易对人民币国际化产生了内外效应。内部效应分为存量效应和流量效应。前者显示扩展经济规模和累积货币势能有利于人民币硬通货化;后者表明保持稳定高速的经济增长率有助于增强人民币的国际竞争力。研究发现,在内外因素共同作用下,强势货币决定了人民币国际化的广度和深度。2005年汇改以来,人民币的升值已证实了这一点。本研究对可控、有序、逐步深入的人民币国际化提供了宏观思辨。

Based on pool data of time series of economic growth and foreign trade in China, this paper verifies the internal and external effects of economic growth and foreign trade on RMB internationalization. The internal effects are divided into stock effect and flow effect： the former shows that the expansion of economic scale and the accumulation of potential energy of strong currencies enable RMB to be a kind of hard currency; the latter demonstrates that the maintenance of a steady and high economic growth rate is helpful in enhancing the international competitiveness of RMB. It shows that strong currency is the determinant of the width and depth of RMB internationalization under the coexistence of internal and external factors, which has been confirmed by RMB appreciation since China＇s exchange rate reform. This paper provides a macro analysis for controlled, orderly and increasingly deepening RMB internationalization.