汇率与资本项目管制下的人民币国际化

RMB's Internationalization Under the System of Limited Exchange Rate and Capital Account Control

本文分析了香港人民币离岸市场上的套利交易活动以及离岸与在岸市场之间的互动机制。人民币离岸市场发展的主要驱动力量在于套利和套汇,但与一般套汇活动的不同之处在于:由于内地货币当局在外汇市场持续干预下的人民币小幅渐进升值,人民币离岸市场的套利空间不会因为套利活动增加而收窄。这意味着,在人民币离岸市场迅速发展的情况下,人民币汇率制度改革将更具有其紧迫性。

This paper makes an analysis of arbitrage activities conducted in Hong Kong's RMB offshore market and the interaction mechanism between the onshore and offshore markets.The development of the RMB offshore market has been mainly driven by interest and exchange arbitrages.Unlike common carry trade activities,the room for arbitrage activities in the RMB offshore market will not become narrower with the increase of such activities in the context of continuous moderate RMB appreciation under the interventions of China's monetary authorities in its foreign exchange market.That implies that it is more urgent for China to reform its RMB exchange rate as the RMB offshore market blossoms.