我国能源消费预测及政策建议

The Prediction of Energy Consumption and Policy Suggestions of China

根据1978—2010年度经济数据,采用协整检验和格兰杰因果关系检验,分析了国内生产总值、第二产业占GDP比重、城市化率、居民消费水平与能源消费之间的关系,并建立协整模型预测出了2011—2020年能源消耗总数,其中,2020年的能源消费总量达到47.72亿t标准煤.最后依据实证分析对我国能源消费提出如下政策建议:大力发展节能工程、加快调整产业结构、有效引导城市化进程、合理控制居民能源消费.

According to annual economic data from 1978 to 2010,by the co-integration analysis and Granger causality test analyses the relationship of energy consumption with GDP,contribution rate of the second industry to economic aggregate,urbanization rate and household consumption level,and then the forecasting model is established.This article gives a prediction of the total energy consumption between 2011 and 2020 by the model above,and the total energy consumption in 2020 will reach 4.772 billion ton standardized coal.Finally,based on the empirical analysis,relevant policy suggestions are put forward as follows：developing of the energy conservation projects,speeding up adjustment of the industrial structure,effectively guiding urbanization process and reasonablely controlling the residential energy consumption.