基于贝叶斯方法的中药治疗乙肝后肝硬化疗效评价

The Study on the Evaluation of the TCM Curative Effect on Posthepatitic Cirrhosis by Bayes Method

目的:建立符合中医药特点的疗效评价方法,预测和评价中药扶正化瘀片治疗慢性病毒性乙型肝炎(乙肝)后肝硬化的疗效。方法:运用贝叶斯分类识别算法,构建中药疗效预测模型。结合中西医临床指标,对180例乙肝后肝硬化病例中药组和安慰剂组的疗效分别进行统计、评价和预测分析。结果:贝叶斯分类算法预测显示:中药扶正化瘀片在控制患者的病情、降低Child-Pugh积分上有一定效果,这与中药组和安慰剂组间的Child-Pugh积分的统计检验结果相一致。结论:运用贝叶斯方法建立的疗效预测模型能够有效地进行中药疗效预测和评价,可以为建立中、西医结合的疗效评价方法提供参考。

Objective. Find an evaluation method which has the characteristics of TCM to forecast and to evaluate the effectiveness of the Chinese herbal that Fuzheng Huayu Pill on viral chronic posthepatitic cirrho- sis. Methods. The curative effect forecasting model has been established by Bayes classify method and 180 ca- ses of posthepatitic cirrhosis have been divided to two groups, one was drug group and the other was placebo one and the data of them were analyzed. Results. The model forecasted and evaluated the curative effect of Fuzheng Huayu Pill on posthepatitic cirrhosis combined with the clinical indicators of TCM and that of West- ern medicine. Conclusion. This model can forecast and evaluate the curative effect of Chinese herbal on posthepatitic cirrhosis, which will be helpful to the study on the method on TCM joint with Western Medi- cine of curative effect evaluation.