我国房地产价格与银行信贷的动态关系研究

Research on the Dynamic Relation between Chinese Real Estate Price and Bank Credit

本文运用矢量误差修正模型（VEC），对2000-2011年我国房地产价格与银行信贷的动态关系进行实证分析，结果表明，银行信贷余额变动是导致实际房地产价格变动的原因，但反之并不成立。当期房地产价格变动对未来房价变动具有持续影响，短期内房地产价格可能背离银行信贷余额的变动趋势，但长期内二者的变动趋势是一致的。

This article uses Vector Error Correction Model to make an empirical analysis of the dynamic relation between Chinese real estate price and bank credit from 2000 to 2011.The conclusion indicates that the change of bank credit balance is the cause of the change of real estate price, but not vice versa. Current change of real estate price has a continuous influence on its future change. In the short time, real estate price may deviate from the variation direction of bank credit balance, but in the long time the variation direction of both is accordant.