摘要
运用向量回归(VAR)模型检验分析商品房供需变化对银行信贷的具体影响,结果表明我国银行信贷规模在未来一段时间将继续保持增长,由投机性需求引起的房地产供需比下降会导致银行信贷规模的扩张,这将加大我国银行业整体信贷风险。应健全我国保障性住房供给制度,遏制房地产市场投机性需求,使银行信贷保持适度规模,从而降低银行系统风险。
Analyzing the specific influence of commodity house supply-demand changes in bank credit by means of vector regression （VAR） model, the result shows that China＇s bank credit scale will keep growing in the period ahead, and the ratio decline of real estate supply-demand caused by the specative demand will lead to an expansion of bank credit scale, which will increase the overall credit risks in banking. In order to reduce the risks in the banking system, the government should improve affordable housing supply system, curb the speculative demand in the real estate market and help remain moderate scale of bank credit.
出处
《商业经济》
2012年第16期79-81,107,共4页
Business & Economy
