我国城市化发展预测──2020年前后达到50%

Forecast of Chinese urbanization Reaching 50% about in 2020 ──Reaching 50% about in 2020

国外实践和研究表明，城市化水平达到５０％不仅仅标志着一个国家城市化水平增长速度将由快变慢，而且也预示这个国家的经济发展将进入平缓增长时期，因而预测我国城市化水平何时达到５０％是非常重要的。本文通过对建国后历年来我国城市化水平数据的筛选，分别用指数法、灰色系统ＧＭ（１，１）模型法及成长曲线法对我国城市化水平达到５０％进行了预测，并对预测结果进行比较分析，最后得出结论。

Forecasting when the ratio of Chinese urbanization rises to 50% is very important, because when the ratio of urbanization reaches 50% it indicates not only the developing speed of urbanization turning slow, but also the economy of this country coming into the period of flat development, which has been verified by overseas practice and research. By filtrating the past years Chinese urbanization data after liberation and using method of exponential function, gray system GM(1, 1) and growing curve model, this paper forecasts when the ratio of Chinese urbanization reaches 50%, then the conclusion is drawn by comparing and analysing the result.