基于D-S证据理论的不完全信息作战方案优选

Selection of Operation Schemes with Incomplete Information Based on D-S Evidence Theory

针对带有不完全信息的作战方案优选问题,提出了一种基于D-S证据理论的多属性决策方法.首先由属性值构建残缺决策矩阵(矩阵中有某些未知元素),然后根据属性值的特征确定各属性对应的焦元.利用信任函数、似然函数和证据推理算法求得每个方案的效用区间和优先度,并根据优先度对所有方案进行排序,从而完成方案优选.该方法通过对作战方案优选过程中繁杂、不确定信息进行融合,可以较好地处理作战信息不完全对作战指挥决策的影响.以一类炮兵作战方案优选为应用算例,证明了该方法的有效性.

Given operation schemes with incomplete information, a multi-attribute decisionmaking method for selecting an optimal scheme is proposed on the basis of the D-S evidence theory. An incomplete decision matrix is built of attribute values, in which some elements are not given, and then focal elements of every attribute are determined according to the characteristics of the attribute values. Using the belief function, plausibility function and evidential ratiocination algorithm, the utility interval and priority of each scheme are derived. All the schemes are ranked by the priorities, by which the optimal one is selected. The proposed method can weaken the influence of incomplete information on decision-making by integrating miscellaneous uncertain information. A case of selecting an optimal scheme of artillery operations demonstrates the effectiveness of the method.