区域经济发展的碳足迹与碳承载力研究

Carbon Footprint and Carbon Bearing Capacity of Regional Economic Development

基于生态足迹方法和指标,构建了反映区域经济发展的碳足迹、碳承载力及碳效率的数学模型,并将其用于沈阳市1991~2005年的经济发展研究.结果显示：沈阳市碳足迹总量在1998年后以15.2%的年增长率快速增加,超过同期的GDP平均增速（13.76%）;碳足迹总量中,化石能源消费的排放足迹占73%~86%.沈阳市的碳承载力在研究期相对稳定,导致碳超载情况严重,2005年的碳足迹是碳承载力的4倍.另外,碳效率在2000年后呈下降趋势,即单位经济产出的碳足迹呈上升趋势.可见2000年后经济的快速增长是以碳足迹的高速增加为代价的,这意味着向低碳经济转型面临严峻挑战.

Based on the method and indicators oI the ecological tootprint, a mathematical model was developed for calculating the carbon footprint, carbon bearing capacity and carbon efficiency of a regional economy, which was applied to the study on the economic development of Shenyang from 1991 to 2005. The results show that, after 1998, the total carbon footprint of Shenyang increased rapidly at an annual growth rate of 15.2 %, overtaking the GDP growth rate at the same period （13.67 %）. In the total carbon footprint, the emissions of fossil-fuel consumption occupy 73 %- 86 %. The carbon bearing capacity of Shenyang was relatively stable in the study period, resulting in a severe carbon overload with the carbon footprint 4 times higher than the carbon bearing capacity in 2005. Furthermore, the carbon efficiency exhibited a decreasing trend after 2000, i.e. the carbon footprint for each unit of economic output showed an increasing trend. It can be seen that, the high economic growth after 2000 was achieved at the cost of the rapid increase in carbon footprint, implying the steering to a low-carbon economy faces a grim challenge.