2020年前中国多气源供应格局展望

Prospect of multiple sources of gas supplies in China before 2020

中国天然气市场已经进入快速发展阶段,多气源供应格局正在形成。据现有的研究成果预测,到2015年,规划的包括常规天然气、煤层气、煤制气和页岩气的国产气和进口管道气、LNG最高供应量可达3 586×108 m3,比目前预测的届时天然气需求量超出900×108 m3以上。最低情景下,到2015年中国天然气供应量也可达3 185×108 m3,比目前预测的届时天然气需求量超出近600×108 m3。综合分析后得出结论:2015年前,我国多气源供气格局将基本形成,彻底结束目前天然气供应紧张的局面,理论上推测天然气供给量将全面超过需求量;基于9×104 km的长输管道和130×108 m3的储气库工作气量,全国天然气供气灵活性、可靠性将大为提高;到2020年,我国多气源供气格局将进一步深化,基础设施将更加完备。因此,在未来气源多样、供应相对充足的前景下,如何优化供应格局显得更为重要。最后建议:①协调处理好国内资源和引进资源的关系;②国家应该统筹协调各沿海地方、各大石油企业引进LNG的规划;③尽快解决国、内外两种天然气的价差问题。

Since natural gas market in China has stepped into a fast growing era,sources of gas supplies are becoming diversified.From the current research results,it is predicted that by 2015,the maximum gas supply of indigenous unconventional natural gas,CBM,coal-derived gas,shale gas,imported pipeline gas and LNG will be up to 350 billion m3,being over 90 billion m3 more than the currently predicted gas demand;the minimum gas supply will reach 310 billion m3,being nearly 60 billion m3 more than the demand.Through a comprehensive analysis,the following conclusions are drawn.First,multiple sources of gas supplies will have been achieved by 2015,completely resolving the short supply of gas.In theory at least,it is predicted that the gas supply will exceed the demand.Second,in combination with the long-distance gas pipelines(90 thousand km in length) and the working gas capacity of gas storage tanks(13 billion m3) to be fulfilled,it is considered that the flexibility and reliability of national gas supply will be significantly improved.Third,with the infrastructure to be completed,it is expected that there will be more available sources of gas supplies by 2020.In summary,under the future situation of diversified and sufficient gas supplies,how to optimize the gas supply pattern will be more important than ever before.In the end,the proposals are presented herein: to deal well with the relationship between the domestic and the imported gas resources;to have an overall planning of LNG import projects according to different coastal areas and different oil and gas companies;and to narrow the gap between domestic and international gas prices.