天然气价格弹性实证研究——以成都地区为例

Case studies of natural gas price elasticity in Chengdu,Southwest China

天然气价格弹性对天然气市场战略的制定具有重要影响,但是目前国内尚缺少系统的相关研究。基于实际数据,通过分析成都地区近8年来天然气价格与需求变化,发现天然气价格调整对市场需求存在短期和长期两种影响。首先应用计量经济学方法,采用弧弹性计算公式得到天然气短期价格弹性介于0.07～0.59之间,长期弹性介于2.29～2.58之间。然后与国内外学者对天然气价格弹性的研究成果进行对比分析,结果发现成都地区与国内外大多数地区天然气市场类似:天然气市场短期缺乏价格弹性而长期富有价格弹性。最后指出:利用天然气价格弹性可以调节市场供需矛盾,同时也应注意其潜在的风险。

The price elasticity has an important impact on the decision making in the natural gas market.However,few systemic studies about that can be found in China.In view of this,based on the actual statistical data,the fluctuation of natural gas prices and changes in demand over the past 8 years in Chengdu,Southwest China,are analyzed.It is found that the price adjustment has effect on the demand in two ways: in the short run and in the long run.By use of econometrics,the arc elastics computation formula is adopted to get the price elasticity in the short term is 0.07-0.59 and that in the long term 2.29-2.58.Furthermore,compared with the related research results by the other scholars at home and abroad,the achieved results in this study show that the price elasticity does exist in the long run but not in the short run in the gas market in Chengdu which is similar to most other gas markets.In the end,this paper points out that the gas price elasticity can help balance the conflict between supply and demand in the market,but much attention should be paid to the potential risks.