技术进步、结构变动与工业二氧化碳排放研究

Technical progress,structure change,and carbon dioxide emissions of industry

本文采用非参数的曼奎斯特生产率指数方法测算了1995至2008年间我国工业的全要素生产率,然后利用交互效应模型,探讨了技术进步、行业结构变动与我国工业二氧化碳排放之间的影响效应。研究结果表明,技术进步对工业的二氧化碳排放起到了抑制作用;行业结构变动则促进了工业的二氧化碳排放,而在不同地区之间则存在着差异,其中东部地区的技术进步对其工业二氧化碳减排的抑制作用最大;中西部地区的结构变动对该地区工业二氧化碳排放的影响最大。

The nonparametric Malmqusit index is applied to measure total factor productivity of industry from the year of 1995 to 2008, then the influential effect among technical progress, industrial restructure, and carbon dioxide emissions is discussed based on a multiplicative interaction model. The results show that technological progress is able to restrain industrial emissions of carbon dioxide. Industrial restructure could promote carbon dioxide emissions. However, technological progress and industrial restructure play the different roles in different regions. Technical progress in eastern part of China has the most significant effect on carbon dioxide emissions restriction. Industrial restructure in central and western regions of China has the most impact on their carbon dioxide emissions.