关于2012年下半年经济形势的两个判断

Economic Situation Outlook in the Second Half of 2012

本文首先从生产和需求两个角度对今年下半年经济增长形势进行判断,认为下半年我国经济增速将初步扭转持续回落的走势,三季度增速可能会比二季度略有回升,四季度增速可能会比三季度略有回升,但回升幅度均有限。接下来,从通货膨胀压力和抑制通货膨胀因素两个角度对下半年通货膨胀形势进行判断,认为下半年我国通货膨胀率可能会延续回落的走势,但回落幅度会有所减小。

The paper makes some judgements about the economic growth situation in the second half of this year from two perspectives of production and demand firstly, and gets some conclusions that the continued decline of china＇s economic growth speed will be reversed in the second half year, the economic growth rate in the third quarter may be little higher than the rate in the second quarter, and the economic growth rate in the fourth quarter may he little higher than the rate in the third quarter. Secondly, the paper makes some judgements about the inflation situation in the second half of this year from two perspectives of inflation pressure and the factors that restrain inflation, and gets some conclusions that the downward trend of the inflation rate will be continued, but the declining extent will be reduced.