基于主成分分析的榆林市水资源承载力评价

Assessment of water resources carrying capacity in Yulin based on principal component analysis

采用主成分分析法选取人均水资源量、水资源开发利用程度、COD浓度、人均粮食占有量、人均用水量、人口自然增长率、人均GDP、用水效益、生态环境用水率等9个指标建立评价指标体系,得到影响榆林市水资源承载力的四大主成分,对榆林市各分区水资源承载力状况进行综合评价。结果表明：榆林市水资源承载力分布不均,综合评价值差异明显;横山、定边、府谷、榆阳区和神木的综合评价值介于1 365.12~10 447.86之间,水资源承载力属中等水平;靖边的综合评价值为10 468.962,略大于Ⅰ级标准值10 447.86,可知其水资源承载力较弱;子洲、佳县、清涧、绥德、米脂、吴堡各区综合评价值均小于1 365.12的三级标准界限值,说明该六区水资源承载能力较强,其水资源还具有较大的开发潜力。最后提出提高榆林市水资源承载力的对策。

This paper established an evaluation index system with nine indicators,such as water quantity per capita,water resources development and utilization level,COD concentration,per capita grain possession,water consumption per capita,natural growth rate of population,per capita GDP,water-use efficiency and environmental water use rate.A comprehensive evaluation of water resources carrying capacity in Yulin was carried out by principal component analysis,through which four principal components were given.The results show that： water resources carrying capacity is in unbalanced distribution in Yulin and the comprehensive evaluation value is different.The comprehensive evaluation values of Hengshan,Dingbian,Fugu,Yuyang and Shenmu are between 1 365.12 and 10 447.86,which are in the middle level.Water resources carrying capacity is limited in Jingbian and its comprehensive evaluation value is 10 468.962（10 447.86）,which is slightly larger than Grade Ⅰ standard.In other divisions, such as Zizhou,Jiaxian,Qingjian,Suide,Mizhi and Wubu,they have a great exploitation potentiality and their evaluating values are lower than 1 365.12,the Grade Ⅲ standard.At last countermeasures are proposed to improve the water resources carrying capacity,which have important practical significance for optimizing water resources allocation and promoting sustainable development of the social economy in Yulin.