基于关键气象因子和天气类型的广州空气污染预报方法应用

Forecasting air pollution based on the key meteorological elements and typical weather patterns in Guangzhou

以广州市环境监测站2007年1月—2009年12月监测的空气污染指数(API)以及SO2、NO2、PM10等污染物为研究对象,探讨了广州市空气污染的变化规律;并分析它们与常规观测的地面气象资料之间的关系;建立了API指数以及SO2、NO2、PM10等污染物的预报方程;为了弥补单纯基于数学模型预报的不足,分析和确定了造成广州严重空气污染的典型天气类型和相关指标,以便在具体的业务预报中可以根据天气形势和相关指标做进一步的订正;该预报方法于2010年10月起应用于广州市环境监测中心站,作为2010年16届亚运会广州空气质量预报预警服务的重要工具之一,运行服务效果良好.

In this paper,the variation characteristics of daily air pollution index（API）,SO2,NO2 and PM10 concentration,the relationship between them,and the surface meteorological elements in Guangzhou from Jan.2007 to Nov.2009 were analyzed.The predictive equations for API,SO2,NO2 and PM10 concentration were built.To compensate for the lack of simple mathematical model,the typical weather patterns and the related indicators were determined.The method was used as an important tool of the air quality forecast and warning services during the 16th Asian Games in Guangzhou at Guangzhou Environmental Monitoring Center Station in Oct.2010.